Debt Management Report in the 2018 Budget: An Analysis of Debt Accumulation Rate-Dr John Gatsi

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On page 30  paragraph 114 of the 2018 budget debt accumulation rate increased from 47.45% in 2013 and peaked at 49.90% in 2014 but reduced significantly to 25.97% in 2015 and further reduced to 21.98% in 2016. This implies debt accumulation rate between 2014 and 2015 decelerated by 23.93% and between 2015 and 2016 it decelerated by 3.99% meaning debt accumulation rate has been decreasing significantly since 2014.
It also means per figure 4 on page 30 , the total debt at the end of September 2017 should be GHC138.9 Billion implying that in 10 months  up to September , 2017 the government borrowed GHC17 Billion and with borrowing in October, November and December 2017 including the Energybond the borrowing maybe more than Ghc24 Billion in 2017 alone. Therefore comparing the average debt accumulation rate from 2013 to 2016 with 10 months in 2017 is misleading especially when the 2016 debt accumulation rate is 14.02% lower than the average debt accumulation rate of 36% .
Note again that the 14.02% is approximately the same as the 13.58% debt accumulation rate for the 10 months in 2017 .
Conclusion
The entire report captured in figure 4 is misleading and does not correctly analyze the debt accumulation rate.

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