Fuel: IES forecasts decline in ex-pump prices for second-pricing window of May

The Institute for Energy Security (IES) says it expects ex-pump prices of petrol and diesel to decline in the second-pricing window of the month of May.

The anticipated decline in fuel prices is attributed to the reduction in prices of refined petroleum products on the international market which is wider than the depreciation level of the Cedi.

“Following the changes recorded on the international market for refined petroleum products.  Gasoline, Gasoil, and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) recorded a fall of about 5.68%, 4.51%, and  4.72% respectively.

“The Ghana Cedi’s performance continuous fall against the U.S. Dollar erodes the gains being made as a result of change on the World Fuel Market.

“In the second pricing window for May 2024, ex-pump is expected to fall given the reductions recorded for refined petroleum products on the international market, which is wider than Ghana Cedi depreciation,” quipped the IES.

According to the IES, the local currency performance on the foreign exchange market (Forex) for the first pricing-window for May 2024 shows that the local currency lost 2.59% against the U.S. Dollar with the Cedi trading at GHC13.88 after previously trading at GHC13.52 at the beginning of the first trading window for May 2024.

Local Fuel Market Performance 

The IES notes that the first pricing-window for May 2024 saw marginal increments in the price of some petroleum products, these changes driven largely by the consistent decline in the value of the local currency  against other international currencies.

The price of gasoline rose by an average of about GHC0.35 while that of gasoil remained unchanged amongst most outlets. A close observation of Oil  Marketing Companies (OMCs) pricing shows some market leaders sell both products at same price  per litre. On the other hand, Liquefied Petroleum Gas sold GHC15.05 after previously being sold  at GHC15.10 per kilogram (kg).

The Institute for Energy Security (IES) computation of national average price for the 3 refined  petroleum products for the first pricing-window for May 2024 shows, Gasoline, and Gasoil sells  at GHC14.22 and GHC14.00 per litre respectively whereas and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)  sells at GHC15.05 per kilogram (kg).

The IES Marketscan positions Zen Petroleum, Star Oil, and Benab Oil as OMCs selling at least  priced over the last two weeks.

World Oil Market 

Oil prices edged higher on Monday after losing about $1 a barrel in the previous session on signs  that U.S. policymakers are likely to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Brent crude futures were up 55 cents at $83.34 a barrel by 1239 GMT. U.S. West Texas  Intermediate crude futures rose 62 cents to $78.88. Prices were supported by a few factors last  week, including a lack of progress in the latest round of negotiations to halt hostilities in Gaza,  economic factors are back in the spotlight.

Analysts expect the U.S. central bank to keep its policy rate on hold for longer, supporting the  dollar and making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies. Meanwhile, Chinese data at the weekend showed consumer prices rising for a third straight month  in April while producer prices extended declines, signalling improved domestic demand.

Global Standard & Poor (S&P) Platts tracking of petroleum products performance on the world  fuels market indicate significant fall in price for Gasoline, Gasoil and LPG. Publishing the data for  May 2024 first pricing-window shows the following net changes in price for individual products.  Specifically, Gasoline price has fallen by 5.68%, Gasoil price is down by 4.51% and Liquefied  Petroleum Gas (LPG) is down by 4.72%.

The comparative analysis of data revealed all price of petroleum products have fallen significantly on the world fuel market.

Source: Norvanreports