UPDI Africa Polls: Mahama Maintains Lead in Final Days of the 2024 Elections Campaign: Mahama 52%, Bawumia 46%, Others 2%

Former President John Dramani Mahama of the NDC holds a significant lead over Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP in the final days of the 2024 election campaign season. UPDI Africa conducted an independent pre-election poll of 2,889 likely voters, from November 24 to November 26 across the sixteen regions of Ghana.

Poll Findings

The poll results show 52% of voters who lean towards the NDC and its candidate J.D. Mahama, while 46% of voters lean towards the NPP and its candidate M. Bawumia in the upcoming 7^th December 2024 elections. The smaller party and independent candidates, undecided voters and rejected ballots made up the remaining 2%. The polls reflect the continued dominance of the NDC and NPP in Ghanaian elections over the last 32 years.

The survey finds indications that turnout among NDC voters and apathy within the ranks of the NPP may determine who wins the Ghanaian election this weekend. The new poll projects increased rates of voting among the youth, who strongly favour Mahama. It also finds signs of apathy among those who previously voted NPP, some of whom now say they may not turn out to vote for the NPP’s Bawumia.

Among floating voters surveyed in this year’s campaigns’ final days, Mahama leads by 66% to 30% for Bawumia. His lead among floating voters has remained steady among registered floating voters in our independent researchers’ internal tracking polls throughout this election year. UPDI Africa’s final survey indicates that the remaining floating voters break slightly in favour of independent candidates and smaller parties. When both turnout and the likely decisions of floating voters are taken into account in UPDI Africa’s final estimate, Mahama maintains a 52% advantage to Bawumia’s 46%, with 2% again going to other candidates.

The survey by UPDI Africa, conducted nationally among registered voters show that since early November, Mahama has made gains among young voters aged between 18 and 40 years old, leading at 61% to Bawumia’s 36%.

Both candidates hold sizeable leads among their core voting groups, including gaining overwhelming endorsement among their own party supporters – 98% of NDC supporters are voting for Mahama, 89% of NPP supporters indicated they are voting for Bawumia.

Methodology

The researchers interviewed 2,889 likely voters through a cross-sectional and representative telephone survey. With this sample size, the researchers can say with 95% confidence that the results are considered accurate within a margin of error of 3 percentage points (+ or -), of what they would have been had the entire adult voter population in Ghana been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Ghanaian population, according to official figures from the EC and GSS.

UPDI General Observations on Election 2024

It is our considered view that voter education and the need for citizens to turn up and vote, has been lacking towards election 2024. We therefore call on the National Commission for Civic Education (NCCE) to use the remaining few days to ramp up its core mandate of civic education. Voter turn-out is crucial in every election and gives the needed validity for power and governance.

However, we are worried about the EC and the not so confidence boosting happenings in the last days toward election 2024. It appeared the EC had ignored warnings coming from some of the political parties on the printing of ballot papers and comments by a Commissioner on monitoring and supervision of ballot movement. These mishaps do not engender the needed confidence in the election.

UPDI commends the Ghana Police Service and sister security agencies for being on top of their responsibilities and have taken note of the proactiveness of the IGP Mr. Dampare and the Police Management Board. UPDI has also taken note of the press release by the Ghana Armed Forces to stay out of the election security, leaving the lead role to the Ghana Police and assuring the Ghanaian public it will only intervene when called upon. This is highly commendable.

UPDI wishes all Ghanaians the very best in this year’s election. One Ghana, One Peace!

Released:  2^nd December, 2024, 14 hours GMT. Accra.

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Signed                        

Executive Dir. | UPDI | Accra