Ghana: IMF forecasts growth in debt to 81.5% of GDP in 2024

The IMF has projected marginal growth in Ghana’s debt stock as a percentage of GDP by the end of 2024.

According to the IMF in its October 2023 Regional Economic Outlook Report, Ghana’s public debt stock will inch upwards to 81.5% of GDP at end-2024 from the projected 84.9% of GDP at end-2023.

The projection of debt-to-GDP ratio by the IMF indicates a significant jump in Government debt when compared with the 66.4% debt-of-GDP ratio given by the nation’s Central Bank as of the end of September 2023.

According to data from the Bank of Ghana (BoG) – the November 2023 Summary of Economic and Financial Data – Ghana’s public debt demonstrated a marked decline of GHS 14.2 billion between June and September 2023, settling at GHS 567.3 billion—equivalent to $51.0 billion or approximately 66.4% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The reduction in debt was attributed to the strengthening of the cedi against the dollar, particularly evident during the month of September, coupled with the suspension of interest payments to external creditors.

Per the report, in June 2023, the revised debt stock stood at GHS 581.5 billion, constituting approximately 68.0% of GDP. Subsequently, the figure fluctuated, reaching GHS 584.0 billion ($53.0 billion) in July and GHS 584.4 billion ($53.0 billion) by the end of August 2023.

The IMF further notes that the country’s overall fiscal deficit will end the year – 2023 – at 4.6%, performing better than the 5.7% deficit target of GDP set for 2023.

Ghana’s overall fiscal deficit is further projected to decline to 4.1% by end-2024, also performing better than the 5.9% of GDP target set in the 2024 budget.