Ghana Can’t Rely on the World—It’s Time to Trade with Africa, Says IMF

Ghana and its Sub-Saharan African peers face a year of moderated economic expansion in 2025 as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of a slowing global recovery and renewed trade tensions. Speaking at the launch of the April 2025 World Economic Outlook during the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings, the Fund’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that while Ghana saw modest growth recovery in 2024, momentum could weaken unless structural reforms and regional integration efforts are deepened.

“Regional growth in Sub-Saharan Africa improved significantly last year to 4 percent but will ease in 2025,” Gourinchas said in response to a question from NorvanReports. “This mirrors the broader softening in the global economic outlook. Our revision for the region stands at -0.4 percentage points, driven by weaker demand, tighter financial conditions, and subdued commodity price prospects.”

For Ghana, where fiscal consolidation under the IMF-supported programme continues to shape macroeconomic policy, the message is clear: the external environment is becoming more uncertain, and domestic resilience must be built from within.

The IMF’s latest projections underscore how even countries implementing reform, such as Ghana under the Mahama administration, remain vulnerable to global shocks. With commodity markets under pressure and geopolitical rifts disrupting trade flows, the Fund sees AfCFTA as a vital opportunity for Ghana and its neighbours to pivot toward intra-African trade and value chain diversification.

“AfCFTA offers a real opportunity to rewire trade dependencies and stimulate investment in sectors beyond traditional exports like gold and cocoa,” Gourinchas said. He hinted that deeper trade integration could serve as an economic buffer for Ghana, particularly as it works to stabilise the cedi, strengthen domestic capital mobilisation, and rebuild investor confidence.

While Gourinchas deferred details on demographic trends and regional reform potential to his colleague Denise R., Deputy Director of the African Department, the IMF’s core message remains one of measured urgency. Ghana’s economy, still grappling with inflation volatility and a complex debt restructuring path, must now contend with a less supportive global backdrop.

The April 2025 World Economic Outlook emphasises that global growth will hover around 3.1 percent this year, barely changed from 2024, and highlights an increasingly fragmented trade regime. Emerging market economies like Ghana are particularly exposed to the downside risk of rising protectionism and capital outflows.

In this context, AfCFTA is no longer just a trade protocol; it is an economic necessity. For Ghana to shield itself from global turbulence, the country must fast-track infrastructure connectivity, enforce trade facilitation reforms, and push for the harmonisation of customs, tariffs, and quality standards across the bloc.

The IMF, while commending Ghana’s reform progress under the Extended Credit Facility programme, cautioned that the country’s growth will remain fragile without sustained reforms and a shift toward productive investments in manufacturing, logistics, and green energy.

“The policy choices Ghana makes today, especially around industrialisation, trade facilitation, and capital formation, will define its economic trajectory for the next decade,” Gourinchas noted.

As Ghana’s delegation, led by Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson, continues high-level engagements in Washington, expectations are high that the country will use this window not only to negotiate favourable terms with creditors but to articulate a clear strategy for positioning itself as a gateway for trade and investment under AfCFTA.

Source: norvanreports.com