Ghana’s cash deficit to widen above 10% of GDP at end 2020

Fitch, one of the international rating agencies, says Ghana’s cash deficit is expected to widen above 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product, (GDP), at the end of 2020. According to Fitch, the 2020 cash deficit includes approximately 2.8% of GDP in arrears clearance and the realisation of contingent liabilities from the financial and energy sectors.

“We expect that the fiscal deficit will narrow in 2021, supported by stronger growth and fewer materialising contingent liabilities. However, the December 2020 elections heighten risks of additional fiscal slippage this year and of possible post-election reversal of the 5% deficit cap and PFM reforms”, the report said.

Fitch estimates Ghana’s total 2020 financing requirement, including debt amortisation, at approximately GHS78 billion or 21% of GDP. The issuance of USD3 billion which 4.9% of GDP in Eurobonds in January 2020, before the COVID-19 crisis effectively shut many emerging markets out of international capital markets, allowed the government to meet a significant portion of its financing needs. The widening of the fiscal deficit will mean that the financing requirement will be approximately 3% of GDP higher than what was programmed in the 2020 budget.

The report said, to meet the extra financing needs, Ghana has come to agreement with the IMF on a Rapid Credit Facility that will disburse USD1 billion (1.6% of GDP) and the government expects an additional USD300 million (0.5% of GDP) from the World Bank. The authorities also plan to draw on approximately USD200 million (0.3% of GDP) in deposits from Ghana’s Petroleum Funds. The remainder of the financing needs will likely come by increasing the government’s call on the domestic debt market.

“If the fiscal deficit widens further than we currently expect, we believe that the government will be able to access additional financing from international financial institutions and draw further on its petroleum funds, which currently have a balance of just below USD1 billion (1.6% of GDP)”,  it said.

The government has also considered amending the Bank of Ghana Act to allow direct borrowing from the Bank of Ghana up to 10% of the previous year’s revenue, which equals GHS5.3 billion (1.6% of GDP). The law allows direct financing of up to 5% of the previous year’s revenue but the government currently has no outstanding balance to the central bank.

The affirmation of the ‘B’ rating reflects Fitch’s expectation of a swift recovery after the coronavirus pandemic shock and the availability of additional fiscal and external financing options to the sovereign. This is balanced against the risk that a deeper and longer economic shock will result in worsening fiscal and external debt metrics.

The coronavirus crisis will cause a shock to Ghana’s near-term growth and fiscal outturns. Public finances are already a ratings weakness, as Ghana has a track record of fiscal slippage around elections and deficiencies in public financial management (PFM) that weakened the government’s ability to meet fiscal targets.

In the years following the 2016 election, the government passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which caps the targeted fiscal deficit at 5% of GDP, along with a number of PFM reforms, which helped lower government deficits on a commitment basis.

Fitch expects fiscal outturns to improve over the medium term, but high general government debt will remain a constraint on the ratings. Fitch forecasts general government debt to increase to 76.8% of GDP in 2020, owing to the combination of a wider fiscal deficit and cedi depreciation. Debt would equal 535% of government revenue, twice the ‘B’ median of 214%.

Furthermore, cedi depreciation has increased external debt servicing costs in local-currency terms and we forecast interest costs to reach 40.3% of revenue compared with the ‘B’ median of 8.6%. We expect government debt to plateau in 2022, although there is a risk of larger-than-expected contingent liabilities from the energy sector.

Fitch forecasts Ghana’s GDP growth to fall to 2% in 2020, but there is material downside risk to this forecast depending on the extent and duration of the coronavirus outbreak and the resulting lockdown measures.

The current lockdown in Ghana’s two largest cities of Accra and Kumasi will lead to much slower growth in manufacturing and services, but agriculture and the extractive sectors are likely to fare better.

Since the commodity price collapse in 2015, Ghana’s economy has been powered by high growth in the oil sector, but modest growth in non-oil sector. We expect a relatively robust recovery to 5% in 2021, as oil production recovers gradually from an expected fall in 2020 and non-oil growth continues its recovery.

The possibility of bringing new oil and gas reserves into production brings some upside risk in the long term, but we expect that Ghana’s oil sector development will slow in response to the collapse of oil prices.

The fall in oil export receipts, along with lower tourism receipts and remittances will lead to widening of the current account (CA) in 2020. However, the widening will be contained by the fact that Ghana’s other key exports, gold and cocoa, are not correlated with the price of oil. Fitch forecasts the CA deficit to widen to 4% of GDP, up from 2.9% in 2019.

The expected increase in external debt disbursements will support Ghana’s official international reserves position, as will the flexibility of the cedi. However, increased borrowing will take net external debt to 46.1% of GDP, well above the current ‘B’ median of 17.6%.

The government will continue to realise contingent liabilities from Ghana’s banking sector in 2020 from the financial sector clean-up. The ratio of non-performing loans (NPL) to total loans fell to 13.9% at end-2019 from 18.2% in the previous year. We expect the NPL ratio to remain elevated in 2020 as a result of economic challenges, but bad loans in the energy sector will continue being cleared slowly through the Energy Sector Recovery Programme (ESRP).

Real private sector credit growth increased to 15.2% yoy in January 2020, from 8.4% at end-2018, but we expect a sharp reduction for the rest of the year as the economy slows. Increased government borrowing requirements will also lead to some crowding out of private sector credit provision, the report said.

By Elorm Desewu