IES forecasts 3% increment in fuel price as cedi depreciates

The Institute for Energy Security (IES) is forecasting a 3 percentage points increment in the price of petrol and diesel within the first-pricing window (two weeks) of the month of April.

The price of LPG is, however, expected to stabilize in the first-pricing window of April.

The price increment in fuel is on the back of the depreciation of the local currency.

The IES asserts its tracking of the local currency performance on the foreign exchange (Forex) market indicates the Cedi depreciation has further deepened, the currency lost 2.22% of its value to a U.S. Dollar. As at the close of trade on March 27, the Ghana Cedi was exchanged at GHC13.06 to the U.S. Dollar.

“In response to the recent changes on the international market, the domestic fuel market is expected to reflect these changes. Liquid fuels such as Gasoline and Gasoil both had their price rise by 3.78%  and 0.08% respectively, in sharp contrast Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) price fell by 2.72% as observed on the World Fuel Market.

“The continuous depreciation of the Ghana Cedi will weigh the domestic price of refined products further especially Gasoline and Gasoil,” the IES stated.

“Consumers in the coming days should expect the price of liquid fuels to continue its rise by 3%, LPG  is likely to see its price stabilize in the first two weeks of April 2024,” it added.

World Fuel Market 

On the world fuel market, the Global Standard & Poor (S&P) Platts monitoring of refined petroleum products shows the following performance for the second pricing-window for March 2024: Gasoline $842.53 to $874.34 rising by 3.78% per metric tonne, Gasoil $836.38 to $837.02 rising by 0.08% and other hand LPG fell to $626.41 from $643.90 representing 2.72% fall in the price of the product.

Local Fuel Market Performance 

On a daily monitoring of the local fuel market for the first pricing-window for March 2024, there  has been a mix reaction to price changes on the market. Some Oil Marketing Companies (OMC’s)  maintained their prices whereas many of them increased their prices for both Gasoline and Gasoil. The average price increase for the liquid fuel ranged between GHC0.30 to GHC 0.50 varying from  one OMC to another.

Using a simple random sampling of OMCs price data compiled over the past 15 days, the Institute  for Energy Security (IES) analysis puts the national average price for Gasoline at GHC 12.73 for  Gasoil, and Gasoline GHC13.70 per lire respectively. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) sells at  GHC13.65 per kilogram (kg).

The IES Marketscan positions So, Virgo, Benab Oil, Zen Petroleum, and Star as OMCs selling at  least priced over the last two weeks.

Source:norvanreports