IMANI Pulse’ Episode 11 Delivers Fresh Insights on Ghana’s Election Sentiments – Who’s Winning the Online Battle?

In the run up to the 2024 General Elections, IMANI presents PULSE, a curated social media-based sentiment analysis report designed to follow the “pulse” of Ghanaians.

After a short break, the PULSE is back again.

The IMANI Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election analysis (PULSE) is to determine the sentiment on social media regarding the major political contenders for the election, as well as influential trends and influencers that are shaping social media discourse. The analyses are referenced from the following platforms:

 

1. Facebook
2. X (formerly, Twitter)
3. YouTube
4. Web
5. TikTok
6. Podcasts
7. Newsfeeds

PULSE monitors primarily the two main contenders, the NPP and the NDC. After the confirmation of what we all believe is the electoral roll, 13 candidates have been presented for the elections of 2024. This and subsequent editions of the PULSE will  feature the main contenders that are talked about on social media.

Information is gathered via main keywords. As news themes change, analysis will be done on these keyword associations.

This edition of the sentiment analysis will cover the post manifesto sentiment along the major policy themes, perception of candidates and campaign activities from August 2024 till October 10^th 2024. The keywords remain:

For the other contenders, since the flagbearers are not known, keywords used were as follows:

1. #Itispossible
2. #BoldSolutionsfoJobs
3. #VoteNumber1
4. #Bawumia2024

For Candidate Mahama, some of the hashtags that emerged with his campaign are:

1. #MahamaforChange
2. #LetsBuildGhanaTogether
3. #iChoose8
4. #ResettingGhana

Over the period, the major events that triggered the sentiments:

1. Balloting of positions for the order on the Ballot Paper
2. Electoral Commission activity on voters register and the call for forensic auditing
3. Regional tours of the various presidential candidates
4. John Mahama meeting the clergy
5. Public reactions to the galamsey menace and related protests

For the NDC and Candidate John Mahama, the following events were very significant:

1. Candidate Mahama meeting the clergy
2. #StopGalamsey demonstrations

For up to a limit of 20,000 mentions analyzed for candidates based on keywords as described, data was analyzed to determine some of the key sentiments, notably positive and negative sentiments, to gauge the public’s “pulse”.

SUMMARY OF REPORT:

Positive Sentiments:

Positive sentiments are identified by the tone of the words that are said in a Facebook post or comment. Positive sentiments convey a feeling of positivity or approval of the context. In this case, positive sentiments show that people posting feel that the subject matter they post about is good and worthy of promotion, praise or approval.

This is critical for observers because it tends to show how people collectively feel about a particular person or issue.

In this case, positive sentiment looks at what people are saying or how they feel about either the NPP or the NDC.

Over the period, collectively on all monitored social platforms, up to 20,000 social media posts by individuals and users were collected and analyzed. These posts were filtered according to the sentiments they showed, with identified sentiments being marked either as positive, negative or neutral.
NDC:

The NDC has been very active in the last month. As election day approaches, campaign activity will heat up, so this was quite predictable. The last time the sentiments were measured, NDC had some 28.6% of the mentions being positive.  This increased marginally to 29.8% by October 10. First of all, the NDC’s position as number 8 after the presidential electoral roll triggered a lot of discussions. Secondly, different opinions on the issue of Galamsey had effects on both candidates’ sentiments, and then finally a major event on the 1^st of October when candidate Mahama met the clergy also triggered a lot of debate and sentiment.

 

Positive sentiment trend from last period:

 

Out of these events, a notable hashtag was added to the NDC social media campaign, which included variations of #iChoose8, #ChoosetheUmbrella among others.

 

 

The green characters show the hashtags and related words with positive sentiment. The increased positive sentiment could be attributed to candidate Mahama’s campaign intensified campaign activities during the period.

 

For this and subsequent sentiment reports, specific issues will be targeted and drilled down. The first of these is sentiments on candidate Mahama with regards to his campaign:

 

Sentiments on Mahama’s Election Campaign:

 

 

The diagram shows the sentiments talking about candidate Mahama with regards to Campaign messages promoting John Dramani Mahama and NDC for the upcoming Ghana elections. This includes commentary on main campaign themes, topics, broad messages and hashtags on social media. For these, the sentiments recordable showed 72% positive sentiment for the NDC and candidate Mahama’s election campaign as a whole.

 

 

Sentiments on Mahama’s Electoral Promises:

On discussions around Mahama’s electoral promises, the general sentiment was positive, with 70% being positive remarks and mentions and 30% being negative remarks.

 

 

 

In addition to the sentiments, for context we also analyzed the emotions attached to the electoral promises so as to gauge a view of what most social media comments are about. This emotional analysis is a new way of gauging whether the reception to the messages trigger the right emotions for several contexts and is beneficial in analyzing public response to issues on social media.

The diagram below outlines the emotions, with the main emotion being one of admiration at 41%, neutral emotions at 36%, and disgust and anger having a combined 18%.

 

 

Calls to Vote for Change:

 

Calls for people to vote for change on social media had a lot of discussion. This constituted about 9.72% of all mentions or share of voice. This shows that one of the central themes of candidate Mahama’s campaign is premised on asking voters to vote for change. Disregarding the neutral sentiments, 82% of measurable sentiments were positive in nature in the context of calls to vote for change.

 

An overview of major campaign highlights influencing the sentiments for the period with regards to the above areas are outlined below:

 

 

 

 

Positive Points:

1. There appears to be a trend of religious leaders making prophetic declarations or offering prayers for John Mahama’s presidency. This could be influencing public opinion and potentially boosting support for the candidate
2. Mahama’s campaign seems to be emphasizing economic policies, particularly the “24-hour economy” strategy and promises to reset the economy within 120 days of taking office. This focus could be resonating with voters concerned about economic issues.
3. The campaign appears to be making concerted efforts to engage young voters, with mentions of youth manifestos and policies targeting young people
4. Several mentions criticize the current NPP government’s performance, particularly in economic management. This narrative could be helping to build a case for change among voters.

Negative Points:

1. A lot of scathing criticism on candidate Mahama’s previous tenure in office and the record of corruption and other governance shortcomings
2. Criticism of the fact that candidate Mahama is avoiding a presidential debate. This is taking root and reaching to many social media users

 

Discussions along candidate Mahama’s record on infrastructure development and comparisons of who has built more. These trigger mostly negative responses and comments and mentions.

NPP:

The NPP has so far run a very robust campaign that sees more activity reported on social media. Averagely. For every 10 mentions of the NDC or NDC related or published content, the NPP has about 15. The NPP campaign since announcing their running mate and getting the no. 1 position on the electoral ballot box has been very aggressive and far reaching.

 

Positive Sentiments:

The NPP’s social media buzz after securing the #1 spot on the ballot paper allowed for very catchy slogans and voter education. This coupled with their initiatives to promote achievements and showcase infrastructural progress on various initiatives such as the Agenda 111, the reiteration of the importance of the introduction of FreeSHS among others gives them a good positive sentiment base.
As such, positive sentiments based on discussions on NPP related content retained a percentage averaging around 31.24% for the period.

 

 

While the NDC has been iterating among different hashtags, the NPP has stuck to its major hashtags, only adding one major one, which is #votenumberone, while varying the #BoldSolutions to #BoldSolutionsforJobs and #BoldSolutionsforBusiness.

Candidate Bawumia has established an identity as a promoter of digitalization and innovation in governance, leading to the announcement of Smart buses (electric buses) and the Citizens App, which was launched recently. Candidate Bawumia is doubling down on this strategy as it helps his positive sentiments and bands together a very loyal and vociferous fanbase across the country. Other notable hashtags owned by the Bawumia campaign are #Bawumiameansbusiness, #empoweringghana and #Bawumiatours, which had been discussed in earlier sentiment analysis reports. One notable change in the blow diagram is the red colored word: Galamsey.

 

 

 

Some of the most negative comments against candidate Bawumia and his party, the NPP over the period under review have been triggered by the act of illegal mining, popularly called Galamsey in Ghana.

Electoral Promises Sentiment:

Commentary featuring hashtags related to candidate Bawumia’s campaign have a very positive sentiment when being discussed. Most of the mentions that have campaign related hashtags are positive. Just above 78% of related commentary carries a positive sentiment

 

 

 

Endorsements and Polls for Bawumia

Interestingly, when it came to endorsements ad polls, there 65% of mentions carried negative sentiments. These focus on candidate Bawumia’s chances of winning the election and how people feel about it. This trend is noteworthy because there are generally positive sentiments on most of the mentions attributed to the keywords on the side of candidate Bawumia.

 

Additionally, There are mentions of protests and demands for voter roll audits by the opposition, which could be impacting public perception of the electoral process and, by extension, Bawumia’s campaign.
However, not all is bad news; mentions of Bawumia’s activities in different regions and among various religious groups suggest an effort to appeal to a broad base of voters across different demographics.

Bawumia’s Vision for Ghana

Interestingly, one of the most talked about topics associated with candidate Bawumia is his vision for Ghana, which commands about 6% of online commentary with Bawumia as a keyword. This elaboration of his vision for the future of Ghana and its future development creates an overwhelmingly positive commentary, with 82% positive sentiments from the measurable mentions online as against 18% negative. This shows that his vision is well articulated to his base of supporters on social media, who amplify his vision in a very positive light.
In line with that and to determine whether this particular sentiment was a true reflection, the share of emotions evoked in commentary was also analyzed. This conformed that about 40% of commentary expressed admiration for Dr Bawumia’s campaign promises.

 

 

POSITIVE SENTIMENT SUMMARY:

Positive aspects of the Bawumia campaign that have generated positive sentiment are as follows:

1. Government initiatives: The launch of the CitizenApp by Bawumia as well as announcements such as the SMART Bus indicates that the brand is associating itself with technological advancements and improved public service delivery, potentially to appeal to tech-savvy voters.
2. Party support: There are indications of strong party backing for Bawumia, with calls for support from party members and leaders. This could be crucial for mobilizing the party base.
3. Candidate Bawumia’s numerous tours across the country have also served to energize his party base, giving him positive reactions from party supporters on social media.
4. The emphasis on Coverage of Ghana’s digital initiatives seems to create a positive buzz around candidate Bawumia
5. Religious and regional factors: Mentions of Bawumia’s activities in different regions and among various religious groups as well as meetings with chiefs and tribal elders suggest an effort to appeal to a broad base of voters across different demographics.

 

Source:norvanreports.com