Jean Mensa’s “Chop Bar” Mathematics Leaves Ghanaians In Shock After Polls

Driven by a rush to make history, as the first Electoral Commissioner to declare results in 24 hours after an election, Jean Mensa, has left Ghanaians in a state of shock.

The country woke up to a press statement from her, admitting she made a mistake in her calculation which declared President Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) as president elect.

But her admission has evoked all the mathematics in almost every Ghanaian.

READ ALSO: EC’s explanation to Techiman South parliamentary result misleading – NDC

A research institution named Research and Grant Institute of Ghana (REGIG) insists the declared results for the presidential election are suspicious and the EC must provide answers over anomalies they have detected.

According to the EC Chairperson, the mistake was with the total number of votes cast on the day of the election.

During the declaration, Mrs. Mensa said a total number of 13, 433, 573 voters cast their ballot across the country.

But in a recent statement from the EC, it acknowledged that Jean Mensa, made a mistake with the number of votes cast across the country.

According to the Commission, the total number of votes cast on the day across the country was rather 13,119, 460 and not 13, 433, 573, as earlier reported.

“The Chairperson of the Electoral Commission inadvertently used 13, 433, 573 as the total valid votes cast. The total valid votes cast is 13,119, 460”, adding regardless of the error, it does not change the percentage stated for each candidate and the declaration made by the Chairperson.

Interestingly, since the numbers and the declaration of the results, Mrs. Mensa, has become a laughing stock on every social media platform, as far as her mathematics is concerned.

Indeed, some have even asked where she got her figures from and insisted her explanation was lazy.

One such on social media stated thst “wrong declaration of results by E-C, Ghana” , adding “Jean Mensah has done it again”.

It gave more elaborate calculation of her numbers as; (6,730,413/13,434574)*100 =50.09%

“The votes from Techiman South, could move this to the second round … where from the 51.96%??.. Our leaders should do this up quickly..”

It argues that “Practically, if you want to add techiman south of 128,018 to NDC then the NDC figure will now be 6,342,907”.

“Then the percentage is 6,342,907/13,434,574×100=47.21% . Hence the percentage increase in NDC figure, will now be 0.95%.

Subtracting that 0.95% from the NPP results of 50.09% will now be 49.14%.” Hence NPP will now have 49.14 % and NDC will have 47.21%”.

This it said means “.. Nobody hits the 50 + 1 % mark” . Another calculation also on the total valid votes cast of 13,434,574, argued that if Nana Addo had *6,730,413* and John Mahama had *6,214,889*.

Nana Addo’s vote of 6,730,413 votes equals (6,730,413÷13,434,574)×100= *50.09℅*

But Jean Mensa says Nana Addo got *51.59%* of the total valid votes cast. This means that, Jean Mensa, has added *1.5* percentage points to Nana Addo’s percentage points.

Again, Jean Mensa, says the declaration was not part of *128,018 votes of Techiman South which represented 0.95%* of the total valid votes cast.

Now, if we subtract *0.95% from 50.09%, it means Nana Addo will get 49.14%*.

So, on what bases could Nana Addo, be declared as the winner of the election? This flawed declaration of Nana Addo as the winner of the election, has been rejected by NDC & Ghanaians based on the pure statistics facts of evidence.

Ghanaians, should do the calculations themselves and see what I am saying. If Jean Mensa thinks she can add *1.5 percentage points to Nana Addo* and got away, she lied bad.

In case of the Eastern Region, the returning officer for the Presidential election was captured in the Video says Akufo-Addo’s numbers as 729, 146 and John Mahama’s votes as 454,176.This result tallied with the numbers on the pink sheet.

However, the result mysteriously changed at EC headquarters with certified results declared for candidate Akufo-Addo 752, 061 and John Mahama 470, 999.

Meaning the pink sheet as declared at the regional collation center and the certified results published by the EC are not in agreement.

From the certified results, Nana Addo’s votes increased by 22,915 while Mahama’s votes also increased by 16,823.

In the end, Nana Addo makes a net gain of 6,092.

Meanwhile, Pressure continues to mount on Jean Mensa to justify the result she declared for the Presidential Election last Wednesday, because her figures were wrong.

A research institution named Research and Grant Institute of Ghana (REGIG) insists the declared results for the presidential election are suspicious and the EC must provide answers over anomalies they have detected.

The independent and non-governmental organization dedicated to the generation, dissemination, and utilization of research and data in Ghana and beyond, in an analysis released, said the results and details provided by the EC is questionable.

“As researchers and data scientists, we are particular about the validity and reliability of the methodology used to obtain data. As we will be using the data for research purposes, it is extremely important we know the data curation process, as well as steps taken to rectify data anomalies. We call on the EC to take steps to provide answers to the pressing issues contained in this press release as we work together to strengthen our democratic institutions with data and science.”

The EC on Thursday issued a statement admitting an error in the declared results.

The Electoral Commission has clarified that its Chairperson, Jean Mensa, “inadvertently used 13,433,573 as the total valid votes cast.”

“The total valid votes cast is 13,119,460. This does not change the percentages stated for each candidate and the declaration made by the Chairperson,” the EC said in the statement issued Thursday, December 10, 2020.

The statement is coming after some top members of the NDC raised questions over the credibility of the percentage given the candidates.

Reading to this, the institute said: “While the response from the EC is very timely, there are several lingering questions relating to the credibility of the presidential election results that researchers, data scientists, policy makers and political stakeholders demand answers for. This is particularly important given that the error was not limited to the total number of valid votes cast but also the total number of valid votes obtained by each candidate and their corresponding percentages.

a. What accounted for the gross computational error in the results declared by the EC on the 9th of December, 2020?

b. Was the result computed manually or an automated statistical software was used? If statistical software was used, what software was used and what could have contributed to such anomalies? If manual computation was used, how was it done and by who?

c. Did the EC audit or verify the accuracy of the results prior to the declaration? How much due diligence was undertaken and by who?

d. When did the EC notice the anomaly? Was it before, during and after the declaration of the result? How did the anomaly come to the attention to the EC? Was it an internal check or external prompt?

e. What were the reasons behind or factors that contributed to some candidates recording an increase in votes whereas for others, there was a decrease in the number of valid votes obtained in the revised results released by the EC on 10th December 2020?

f. What is the integrity of the supposed revised presidential results for advancing statistical discourses relating to the 2020 presidential election in Ghana published by the EC on 10th December 2020? What processes were adopted in revising the results?