Nearly two thirds of people in Central and West Africa who have experienced a disaster received no warning 

• Central and West Africa remains one of the lowest scoring regions on the World Risk Poll Resilience Index.
• 62% of people from Central and Western Africa who have experienced any disaster in the past five years received no warning.
• All four of Africa’s subregions scored less than 50 out of 100 on the World Risk Poll Resilience Index, making them the least resilient regions in the world.

A new report by a global safety charity has highlighted significant gaps in access to disaster early warning systems in Central and West Africa, emphasising how much progress remains to be made by the UN’s ‘Early Warnings for All’ initiative. The report also highlighted the region – alongside the other three African subregions – as one of the ‘least resilient’ in the world to natural hazards and other shocks.

The findings come from the latest edition of the World Risk Poll Resilience Index, produced by Lloyd’s Register Foundation using data gathered by Gallup as part of the Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll. The results are detailed in a new report: ‘Resilience in a Changing World.’ This is the third edition of the Poll and comprises data from 147,000 people in 142 countries on how they experience and perceive risk.

According to the data – collected in 2023 – 62% of people who have experienced any disaster in the past five years in Central and Western Africa received no warning of the event. This comes as risk levels – partly due to climate change – are on the rise, with the percentage of people in the region who experienced a disaster in the past five years rising from 26% in 2021 to 34% in 2023.

The report found that Central, Western and Northern Africa should all be regions of particular focus to improve the coverage and effectiveness of disaster warnings, with the proportion of people who received no such warning far above the global average of 30%. People with the lowest levels of education, those who live in rural areas, and those with the lowest levels of financial resilience were also found to be significantly less likely to receive warnings.

All four of Africa’s subregions, including Central and West Africa, scored just below 50 (out of 100) on the World Risk Poll Resilience Index, placing them among the least resilient regions in the world, alongside Latin America and the Caribbean. For Central and Western Africa, the Resilience Index score remained unchanged from 2021, at 44. Within the region, Mali, Senegal and Gabon recorded the highest resilience scores – while Sierra Leone, Congo (Kinshasa) and Togo came last, the latter scoring seven less points than Mali.*

Analysis from the report highlights that mobile phones and digital early warning systems could represent a key opportunity to narrowing these gaps in coverage, given over three quarters (77%) of people globally who received no warning about the disaster they experienced own a mobile phone.

Francis Anthony Reffell, Founder and Director of the Centre of Dialogue on Human Settlement and Poverty Alleviation (CODOHSAPA) in Sierra Leone, said: “The World Risk Poll Resilience Index has shed light on how critical early warning systems are to minimising the consequences of disaster and building resilience. Local and state-level policy and decision makers should make use of this data to improve these systems, for which the Poll has shed light on the diverse opportunities and outlets to be utilised.

“At the same time, public confidence is very important, and the public is required to respect and respond appropriately to these warnings. In other words, both the state and citizens have different but related responsibilities to ensure the efficacy of the systems – government to institute efficient early warning systems, and citizens to respond positively to those warnings!”

Nancy Hey, Director of Evidence and Insight at Lloyd’s Register Foundation, said: “The World Risk Poll Resilience Index aims to provide insight for policymakers into how global populations perceive risk and how these risks affect their lives. Our findings will help them work with communities to support them in the face of natural hazards and other potential causes of disaster.

“For people in Central and West Africa, the latest World Risk Poll shows significant gaps in access to disaster early warning systems, with the region remaining one of the least resilient in the world. While mobile phones and digital early warning systems represent a key opportunity to narrow these gaps in provision, policymakers need to focus on rural areas in particular, as well as on those with the lowest levels of financial resilience and education.”

Dr Kate Strachan, Senior Manager: Climate Change Resilience, Coastal Management and DRR at ICLEI Africa, added: “In African cities, climate resilience isn’t just a concept – as it’s a lifeline for millions, crucial for safeguarding livelihoods, protecting infrastructure, and preserving ecosystems for generations to come. Without it, the devastating impacts of climate change could unravel the very fabric of urban life and prosperity.”

The full 2024 World Risk Poll report, ‘Resilience in a Changing World’, which contains further insights into resilience across the world, can be accessed here. The full Resilience Index data, including country and demographic-specific data, is also available on request.