Nigeria inflation rises more than forecast to match 2005 record

Nigeria’s inflation rate climbed to a new 18-year high in November, matching a record level reached in 2005, which may spur the central bank to raise interest rates.

Consumer prices rose 28.2% from a year earlier, compared with 27.3% in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 27.9% increase. Prices rose 2.1% in the month.

Inflation in the West African nation — where at least 40% of its more than 200 million live in extreme poverty — surged after looser foreign-exchange restrictions in June led the naira to plunge 45%. The end of a fuel subsidy a month earlier caused transport costs to almost triple.

Annual food inflation quickened to 32.8% in November from 31.5% a month earlier, while core price growth — which excludes farm-produce and energy costs — slowed to 22.4% from 22.6%.

To restore price stability, the Abuja-based Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to lift its key interest rate for a ninth time in a row when it meets next year. It’s already raised rates by 725 basis points since May 2022 to 18.75%.

Inflation in Africa’s biggest crude producer is expected to peak at 30% in the first quarter of 2024, according to Yvonne Mhango of Bloomberg Economics, who expects the central bank to raise rates by 500 basis points in the first half of 2024.

A hike of that magnitude “would allow it to restore positive real rates by August” and reduce inflation expectations that have become de-anchored, Mhango said in a note. Also, “higher rates will attract foreign financial inflows that will help converge exchange rates and stabilize the naira.”