NPP’s Defeat in the 2024 General Elections in the Tano South Constituency: Causes, Effects and the way-forward

INTRODUCTION

The most painful and disappointing thing is for one to go for elections in whatever form, shape or fashion and lose it. This development or experience is not easily forgotten by the victims involved. The writer of this harmless article wishes to say or state in clear or unambiguous terms by way of introduction that, this academic exercise which the writer has been doing or engaging in for the past two (2) years is to, for all intents and purposes, bring to the fore the hidden truth and reality in the Ghanaian society.[1] Imperatively, it is sine qua non for the Writer/Author to mention that, basically, election involves two things in other words, two kind of results. These are: 1. Whether you win or 2. You lose. Therefore, one should not be overly surprised when any of the two results occur to them. Objectively speaking, this article seeks to investigate or inquire to know why the NPP suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2024 General Elections in the Tano South Constituency and also analyse the catalogued factors that contributed to or fueled same. In the same vein, recommendations are provided therein as to how future electoral defeat will be forestalled.[2]

DEFINITION OF ELECTION

Election is defined as the formal process of selecting a person for public office or of accepting or rejecting a political proposition by voting.[3] It is important to distinguish between the form and the substance of elections.[4] In some cases, electoral forms are present but the substance of an election is missing, as when voters do not have a free and genuine choice between at least two alternatives.[5] Most countries hold elections in at least the formal sense, but in many of them the elections are not competitive (e.g., all but one party may be forbidden to contest) or the electoral situation is in other respects highly compromised.[6]

HISTORY OF ELECTIONS

Although elections were used in ancient Athens, in Rome, and in the selection of popes and Holy Roman emperors, the origins of elections in the contemporary world lie in the gradual emergence of representative government in Europe and North America beginning in the 17th century.[7] At that time, the holistic notion of representation characteristic of the Middle Ages was transformed into a more individualistic conception, one that made the individual the critical unit to be counted. For example, the British Parliament was no longer seen as representing estates, corporations, and vested interests but was rather perceived as standing for actual human beings.[8] The movement abolishing the so-called “rotten boroughs”—electoral districts of small population controlled by a single person or family—that culminated in the Reform Act of 1832 (one of three major Reform Bills in the 19th century in Britain that expanded the size of the electorate) was a direct consequence of this individualistic conception of representation.[9] Once governments were believed to derive their powers from the consent of the governed and expected to seek that consent regularly, it remained to decide precisely who was to be included among the governed whose consent was necessary. Advocates of full democracy favored the establishment of universal adult suffrage.[10] Across western Europe and North America, adult male suffrage was ensured almost everywhere by 1920, though woman suffrage was not established until somewhat later (e.g., 1928 in Britain, 1944 in France, 1949 in Belgium, and 1971 in Switzerland).[11]

FUNCTIONS OF ELECTIONS

1. Elections make a fundamental contribution to democratic governance. Because direct democracy—a form of government in which political decisions are made directly by the entire body of qualified citizens—is impractical in most modern societies, democratic government must be conducted through representatives.
2. Elections enable voters to select leaders and to hold them accountable for their performance in office. Accountability can be undermined when elected leaders do not care whether they are reelected or when, for historical or other reasons, one party or coalition is so dominant that there is effectively no choice for voters among alternative candidates, parties, or policies.
3. Nevertheless, the possibility of controlling leaders by requiring them to submit to regular and periodic elections helps to solve the problem of succession in leadership and thus contributes to the continuation of democracy.
4. Moreover, where the electoral process is competitive and forces candidates or parties to expose their records and future intentions to popular scrutiny, elections serve as forums for the discussion of public issues and facilitate the expression of public opinion.
5. Elections thus provide political education for citizens and ensure the responsiveness of democratic governments to the will of the people.
6. They also serve to legitimize the acts of those who wield power, a function that is performed to some extent even by elections that are noncompetitive.

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND TO THE GHANAIAN ELECTORAL SYSTEM

Universal suffrage from 1951

The first election to be held under universal suffrage was the 1951 Gold Coast general election held on 8 February 1951. There was an 84-seat Legislative Assembly with 38 elected members being directly elected and the rest being appointed.[12] Kwame Nkrumah who was then in prison on a three years sentence for sedition was released from jail by Charles Noble Arden-Clarke, the Governor of the Gold Coast and invited in order to become the Leader of Government Business. His party, the Convention People’s Party (CPP), won 34 of the 38 elected seats in the election. Following a change in the constitution, the Assembly was expanded to 104 seats, all to be directly elected. In 1956, the Legislative Assembly was dissolved and elections were held to test the popular support for the call by the CPP for independence. This was won by the CPP paving the way for preparation for independence. This parliament went on to become the first parliament of the independent nation Ghana.

From independence to 1969

Ahead of Ghana becoming a republic, the first presidential election was held on 27 April 1960. Nkrumah won 89 per cent of the vote and was subsequently declared President for life.[13] In the 1965 Ghanaian parliamentary election, all the CPP candidates were elected unopposed due to the one-party state system in place at the time. The National Liberation Council military government organised the 1969 Ghanaian parliamentary election which brought the Progress Party into power with a large majority.[14] Following the military coup d’état of 1966, the National Liberation Council organised a general election on 26 August 1969. The voting was delayed in two constituencies, Chiana-Paga and Tumu and were held on 2 September 1969 and 3 September 1969. Five parties contested the election. Kofi Busia became prime minister as leader of the Progress Party, which won 104 of the 140 seats in parliament.[15]

Third Republic

Following seven years of military rule, the 1979 election was held to return Ghana to civilian rule on 18 June 1979. The president was directly elected, unlike in 1969 when the leader of the largest party in parliament became prime minister.[16] There had to be a second round of the presidential ballot, as none of the contestants had more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first election. Akwasi Afrifa, a former military head of state and a candidate for the Mampong seat, was executed by firing squad on 26 June 1979, eight days after the election. He won his seat but did not live to take his seat in parliament.[17]

Fourth Republic

1992 elections

Due to another military intervention, the next presidential election was 13 years later, on 3 November 1992. Jerry Rawlings, who had come to power in another military coup on 31 December 1981, won the election as the candidate of the Progressive Alliance, which was formed between his party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), the Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere (EGLE) and National Convention Party (NCP).[18] The turnout was 50.2 per cent. The opposition declared that this election had been rigged and boycotted the parliamentary election on 29 December 1992 which reduced the turnout to 28.1 per cent. The number of seats had been increased from 140 in

1979 to 200 and was won by the NDC which took 189 seats. In the 1996 Ghanaian general election, Rawlings won a second term with 57.4 per cent of the votes. His party’s majority reduced to 66 as the opposition took part this time.

2000 election

History was made after the 2000 Ghanaian general election as the country experienced the first change of government through the ballot box. John Kufuor won the first ballot with 48.17 per cent of the vote.[19] In the run-off elections between the first two candidates, Kufuor beat John Atta Mills with 56.9 per cent of the votes. In the parliamentary ballot, the NPP won 99 seats.[20]

2004 election

In the 2004 Ghanaian general election, Kufuor won a second term as president with 52.45 per cent of the votes. In the parliamentary contest, the NPP won 128 seats.[21]

2008 election

There was a second successful change of government by the ballot box after the 2008 Ghanaian general election. John Atta Mills won after a second round of voting, winning 50.23 per cent of the votes.[22] His party, the NDC, won 116 of the 230 seats. Unfortunately, Mills died during on 24 July 2012, less than five months before the https://en.wikipedia.org 2012 election

The number of seats had been increased to 275 from 230 amidst some controversy. A new biometric voters register was adopted to help reduce concerns about the validity of the electoral register.[23] Some expressed concerns that the new system on its own will not address the issues raised. The elections extended from 7 December 2012 into the next day due to problems with the reliability of the Biometric voters machines being used to verify the identities of the voters. It was believed that registering and verifying the identity of 13 million voters within a 48 hours period was nevertheless exceeded the previous world record in India of 3.5 million people.[24] Mahama went on to win 50.7 per cent of the votes to continue as president. Nana Akufo-Addo and the NPP went to the Supreme Court of Ghana to challenge the validity of the result of the election.[25] This case raised a lot of public interest and tension. The nine-member panel of the court presided over by Justice William Atuguba ruled that the results of the 2012 presidential election should stand and that Mahama was elected legitimately. Akufo-Addo accepted the result and the feared chaos and violence after the result did not occur.  The NDC won 148 seats giving them a majority of 21 in the 275 seat parliament.[26]

2016 election

In October 2016, the Electoral Commission disqualified 12 presidential aspirants from contesting the 2016 Ghanaian general election citing irregularities with their registration documentation. Papa Kwesi Nduom of the Progressive People’s Party successfully overturned his disqualification in an Accra High Court.[27] Mahama, however, lost the  2016 Ghanaian general election, winning 44.53 per cent of the votes cast against 53.72 per cent for Akufo-

Addo. This led to the fourth change of government in the Fourth Republic.[28] Eleven political parties contested the election. The two largest parties, the NPP and the NDC, won all the parliamentary seats between them. The NPP won 169 seats, while the NDC had the remaining 106.[29]

2020 election

The 2020 Ghanaian general election is due to be held on 7 December 2020. In June 2018, the Electoral Commissioner, Charlotte Osei and her two deputies were sacked by President Nana Akufo-Addo. She was replaced by Jean Adukwei Mensa. The revamped Electoral Commission then announced that it will compile a new voters register and replace the biometric voting system with an entirely new one as the old one was not fit for purpose.[30]

Election results

The seat majority figure given is for the difference between the number of MPs elected at the general election from the party of government, as opposed to all the other parties (some of which may have been giving some support to the government, but were not necessarily participating in a coalition).[31]

2024 John Dramani Mahama’s Comeback

The most recent presidential election took place on December 7, 2024 marking a significant moment in the nation’s political history. This election was held to elect the President of Ghana.[32] This election occurred during a challenging and turbulent economic period for Ghana characterised by high inflation and significant public dissatisfaction with the ruling party’s management of economic issues.[33] The results demonstrated a clear demand for change among the electorate. Vice President Bawumia publicly conceded defeat shortly after the results began to roll in on the election night.[34] He acknowledged Mahama’s victory and expressed his commitment to a peaceful transition of power. Mahama confirmed receiving Bawumia’s congratulatory message and emphasised unity going forward. Former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) emerged victorious securing 6,328,397 votes which accounted for 56.55% of the total valid votes cast. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, his main contender, representing the New Patriotic Party (NPP) garnered 4,657,304 votes representing 41.61%. The election saw a total voter out turnout of 60.9% with over 18 million citizens participating across approximately

40,000 polling stations. Ghana’s electoral history from 1992 to 2024 demonstrates a robust commitment to democratic governance featured with peaceful transitions and increasing public participation in spite of the challenges such as political violence and allegation of electoral fraud. However, Ghana is seen as a model or beacon of democracy in West Africa.

Causes of NPP’s Defeat in the 2024 General Elections in the Tano South Constituency

A plethora of factors caused the NPP’s humiliating defeat in the just ended 2024 general elections. Some of these factors or causes are given as follows:

1. Unfair delegate system
2. Avoidable apathy
3. The MP not touching grands/some Constituency executives personalising the MP as their bona fide property.
4. Distribution of goodies to underserving people.
5. Uncompleted and uncommisioned projects in the Hometown of the MP (e.g. the Derma to Asuoso Road etc.)
6. The 8-year electoral cycle.
7. Unwillingness of party members to go out and cast their votes.
8. The ungrateful nature of the MP to show appreciation to some individuals who supported him during previous elections.

Unfair Delegate System

The delegate system used by the party to select both the presidential and parliamentary candidates prior to general election is unfair. This is a system whereby just a few party members constitute the electoral college to elect a presidential or parliamentary candidate for the general members of the party and other sympathisers to vote for such a candidate in the general elections. Due to the size of the members (polling station executives, electoral area coordinators, constituency executives, regional executives, national executives, patrons, TESCON etc.), it is very easy for candidates who have the financial resources to bribe their ways out at the expense of other candidates who might not be financially resourceful. This system actually angered the general membership of the party as well as the party sympathisers, hence, they were unwilling to go to the polls and cast their ballot.

Avoidable and unnecessary apathy

Another factor that contributed significantly to the NPP’s defeat in the 2024 general elections in the Tano South Constituency was avoidable and unnecessary apathy that set in the party. Due to the actions and inactions of the MP and the presidential candidate of the NPP Dr. Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, a lot of the original party members were peeved beyond description. Hence, their election not to go out and cast their votes for both the parliamentary candidate and presidential candidate.

The MP not touching grounds

The researcher/writer/author of this article being a resident/constituent of Tano South Constituency hardly saw the parliamentary candidate of the NPP touching base with the local people especially with the floating voters. In fact, the reality of the matter is that, the parliamentary candidate made it a policy to visit and familiarize with only the original party members. This devastatingly affected the fortunes of the party. It was seen or observed that, at some point, some of the constituency executives personalised the MP as though he was their bona fide property.

Distribution of goodies to undeserving people

The worsening or devastating aspect of the entire defeat was the fact that, some valuable items such as Plasma Tv sets or Flat screen Tv sets, sowing machines, motor bikes, undisclosed sums of money were dished or doled out to undeserving people including our political enemies. This particular thing added more salt to the injuries of the party. In fact, how on earth would you buy a weapon and hand it down to your enemies to be used against you? This was done as a result of sycophancy, without proper planning and total missed priority.

Uncompleted and completed but not commissioned projects

Walking or criss-crossing the constituency, it can be observed or seen that, there are several projects that were started by the NPP government but not completed and commissioned. For example, the Derma to Asuoso Road among others. Also, some projects were started and completed by the NPP government but these projects were never commissioned by the President or the MP or the MCE. In fact, Derma, the Hometown of the MP has numerous of such projects that were never commissioned. This in a way, affected the fortunes of the NPP in the 2024 general elections.

The 8-year electoral cycle

It has been a political ritual within the political space that, the Ghanaian electorates always change government in every 8 years. Calculating it from 1992, governments are changed in every 8 years. In fact, this has been the practice since Ghana adopted democratic rule under the fourth Republic. For this reason, the NPP losing the 2024 general elections didn’t come to me as a great surprise at all. In fact, I must say that, this trend will be very difficult to break in the political history of Ghana. This largely contributed to the abysmal performance of the NPP in the just ended elections.

The Ungratefulness of the MP to show appreciation to some party loyalists

It is an irrefragable fact that, during the 2016 elections, some party loyalist donated or offered assistance and support in many forms to the MP which eventually aided him to win the seat for the first time. Some of the support that was extended to the MP include rented buses to convey people (electorates) from Kumasi to Derma to cast their votes in favour of the MP, undisclosed sums of money and others. Surprisingly, after electoral victory was secured by the MP, he suddenly forgot and failed to go back to these same individuals who helped him secure the electoral victory to express his appreciation and gratitude to those loyalists/donors. This, however, angered these individuals and as result, withdrew their support in the 2024 elections, hence, a lot of the voters were left in Kumasi without having the means of transportation to come and cast their votes.

Effects

There is a saying that, “to every action, there is a reaction.” This is further explained that, in our daily dealings with other people, whatever has a cause definitely has an effect. However, some of the effects of the NPP losing the 2024 elections are given as follows:

1. Discontinuation of governmental projects.
2. Disappointment to party faithfuls.
3. Loss of government contracts.
4. Disorganised party structure.

Discontinuation of governmental/developmental projects

It is usual and a common practice within the political space in Ghana that, whenever there a change of government, the incoming government fails to continue most of the developmental projects that were started by the out-gone government. This trend rather retards the development and growth of the economy of Ghana. In fact, this practice adopted by our political actors contributes to waste of the scarce resources of the country. This is a wasteful venture!

Disappointment to party faithfuls

Consequentially, the humiliating defeat suffered by the NPP has brought disappointment to party faithfuls who banked their hopes in the MP. Apparently, all the party faithfuls who were promised in one way or the other prior to the 2024 elections are now being disappointed following the electoral defeat.

Loss of government contracts

In Ghana, it is the case that, people get contracts from the sitting government to build schools, hospitals, clinics, police stations and also construct roads among others. As soon as there is a change in government, people lose all these contracts. This in effect, brings about some degree of hardship on the individuals involved.

Disorganised party structure

Now, the political philosophy is that, it is the political parties that form governments in Ghana. Putting it other way, governments are birthed by the political parties in Ghana. In that case, both political parties and governments have something in common. In fact, when a political party goes to the polls and loses it, it has a damning consequences on the party structure. The loss suffered by the party can affect the party structures which may call for some internal investigation to know why and how the party lose the election. Per the information available on GhanaWeb, Charles Aseidu of NDC won the 2024 Parliamentary Election by some 995 votes difference or margin. Charles Aseidu had a total vote of 20, 056 representing 50.78% whereas Benjamin Yeboah Sekyere of NPP had 19, 061 vote representing 48.27%. Mahamudu Bawumia of NPP garnered 19, 080 votes representing 48.90% whereas John Dramani Mahama of NDC pulled 19, 331 votes representing 49.54% making him the victor.

Way-forward/Recommendations

As it is said that,” to every problem, there is a solution or to every disease, there is a cure.” As an author of this article, I hereby respectfully offer the following well-reasoned recommendations to the party hierarchy at the constituency level (Tano South Constituency):

1. Widening the electoral courage system to allow all card bearing members of the party to select both the Parliamentary Candidate and the Presidential Candidate thereby collapsing the delegate system. By this, there will be fairness and equity.
2. Under no circumstance should a Parliamentary Candidate be imposed on the party.
3. MPs/Parliamentary Candidate showing appreciation for every little assistance and support they receive from party loyalists.
4. Engaging all the angered party members, listening to their problems and finding amicable solutions to same.
5. MPs/Parliamentary Candidate touching the base to familiarize with every single individual within the constituency despite their political biases.
6. MPs ensuring completion and commissioning of government projects such as toilet facilities, road, school among others in other for the electorates or constituents to enjoy and benefit same.

CONCLUSION

I would like to conclude my article by reiterating the fact that, the humiliating defeat suffered by the NPP in the 2024 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections were due factors which include: 1. Unfair delegate system 2. Avoidable apathy 3. The MP not touching grands/some Constituency executives personalising the MP as their bona fide property. 4. Distribution of goodies to underserving people. 5. Uncompleted and uncommisioned projects in the Hometown of the MP (e.g. the Derma to Asuoso Road etc. 6. The 8-year electoral cycle. 7. The ungrateful nature of the MP to show appreciation to some individuals who supported him during previous elections. Some of the effects therein are also given as: 1. Discontinuation of governmental projects. 2. Disappointment to party faithfuls. 3. Loss of government contracts. 4. Disorganised party structure. The way-forward has been provided in a form of recommendation as given or stated supra. The author of this Article is optimistic that, the party leadership at the Constituency, Regional and National levels will read it and find some wisdom in same to as it were, guide or inspire them in the future restructuring and re-engineering of the party to win future elections again.

Justice Reuben Adusei

(LLB Graduand of KAAF University, Accra)

Tel: 0245343584