I am a Citizen.
I do not understand why Energy Minister Peter Amewu wants to climax the one week commemoration of the 13th January, 1972 overthrow of President Edward Akufo-Addo with DUMSOR.
For the students of history, Colonel Kutu Acheampong (as he then was) overthrew the notoriously corrupt and incompetent government of President Akufo-Addo and his Prime Minister Kofi Abrefa Busia on 13th January, I972.
Well, they say in Kyebi that even a dead elephant is worth millions of cedis.
So, to commemorate the occasion of the overthrow of his father’s dead Progress Party government, current Ghanaian President, the respected Retired and Tired Billy Akufo-Addo has effective 1st January, 2020, provided COLA (Cost of Living Allowance) of ten percent (10%) increment in salaries across board to all public sector employees.
President Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo thinks he is as smart as SHYLOCK!
What President Akufo-Addo could not foresee during the one week commemoration (13-20 January) is the impact of a PIGGING OPERATION to be carried out from 20th January, 2020 by the West Africa Gas Company (WAPCo) under the auspices of the Ministry of Energy.
What is a PIG?
Simply put, a PIG is a Pipeline Inspection Guage or Pipeline Intervention Gadget, which ensures a flow assurance for oil and gas pipelines.
Sources close to Energy Minister Peter Amewu, with knowledge of the issues, say there is an operation by WAPCo to stabilize the West African Gas Pipeline from 17th January, 2020. In this regard, WAPCo, according to the sources has signed two contracts ( a Pigging Contract and an Effluent Management Contract).
Accordingly, from 20th January, 2020 seven cleaning PIGS will be launched for the entire operation. Each pig is expected to travel for 7 days ceteris paribus (as Energy Economists put it)
The issues that give officials of the Energy Ministry headaches are how to address, manage and communicate the expected IMPACT of the Pigging Operation on electricity supply to the country.
This is a tough call, judging from what Jubilee House deep throat sources say is the tough political and security implications of the impact of the Pigging Operation.
Checks with some power sector stakeholders on the likely impact give unnerving scenarios which indicate an early 2020 DUMSOR.
These are some of the scenarios:
(1). Ambassador Kabral Blay-Amihere’s GRIDCo will be explaining to President Akufo-Addo that there will be lots of power instability and its associated drops in voltage as there will be no power to be evacuated from the Tema power enclave (East).
Do you know why?
(2). Because WAPCo sources say, on condition of anonymity, that there will be no gas supply to power generators like KTPP, Cenpower, Aksa, in the East, to enable them generate power.
(3). The Energy and Finance Ministries cannot confirm or guarantee funding the supply of liquid fuel for KTPP, Cenpower and Aksa to keep them running to maintain power supply.
(4). Only some 70 to 80mmscf/d gas will flow from Nigeria to Takoradi for the VRA T1 generation plants which is expected to consume 108mmscf/d during the period.
(5). There is no potential offtaker for GNGC gas on the WAGP pipeline during the period of the Pigging Operation.
(6). Accordingly, GRIDCo can guarantee availability of ONLY 1345 MW of electricity from the West, all things being equal.
Fortunately, Ghana Gas has some capacity to partially alleviate the headache of Energy Minister Peter Amewu by committing to hanging in there and supplying 220 mmscf/d from OCTP and 100 mmscf/d from Jubilee.
Nevertheless, Jubilee House sources say the government is jittery about the fallouts of some technical, operational and generation challenges. As examples;
(1). Will the 70-80mmscf/d gas to be flown from Nigeria to Takoradi during the PIGGING OPERATION meet VRA’s T1 specifications?
(2). If N-gas is off Ghana’s specification (off spec), then the gas can not be used on VRA’s gas turbines as the off spec gas can cause damage with its attendant huge costs to ordinary Ghanaians.
(3). Generation challenges in the West coupled with lack of liquid fuel to run the generation plants in Tema (East) can result in DUMSOR.
Accordingly, I ask again;
Energy Minister Peter Amewu, how can you climax the one-week anniversary of the 13th January, 1972 overthrow of President Edward Akufo-Addo with DUMSOR?
I have travelled in Asia for several years and often wondered, if oil and gas were such a blessing to countries which possesed them, how South Korea which has no oil became an economic tiger.
Do majority of our Citizens remember that Ghana is an oil producing country?
I Shall Retunr (sic).
16th January, 2020.