Premier League title race: Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool fixtures analysed

The Premier League title race is heading to the wire – but how do Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool’s run-ins compare?

Arsenal retained their place at the Premier League summit after beating Tottenham 3-2 on Super Sunday, before Manchester City kept pace with a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest.

Liverpool dropped points for the second game running with a 2-2 draw against West Ham on Saturday, which leaves Jurgen Klopp’s side five points adrift of the Gunners.

Crucially, Pep Guardiola’s Man City have one game in hand over their rivals, but it’s a tricky tie at Tottenham on May 14 – just five days before the final day.

Arsenal

League position: 1st

Points: 80

Goal difference: +57

Games remaining: 3

Average position of opponent: 10.3

Reverse fixtures: 9 points

Bournemouth 0-4 Arsenal

Arsenal 3-1 Man Utd

Everton 0-1 Arsenal

Manchester United vs Arsenal, May 12, 4.30pm

“It’s a far better Arsenal team than last season, a far bigger mentality, a stronger mentality.

“People will point towards William Saliba [returning] and I will as well, but it’s more than that.

“There is a focus and discipline and attention to detail on the pitch in their defensive work – and six clean sheets on the bounce is a hell of an achievement in any season.

“They maybe had a bit of a wobble, the Villa game and obviously in the Champions League, but that can happen.

“They’ve got back on the bike and demonstrated that they have moved forward as a club, moved forward as a coaching team, moved forward as a group of players and are nowhere near the position they were in last season.

“I think they will achieve a 100 per cent record. The one doubt is the Old Trafford game. It will all depend for me on how City do in the next week or two as well.”

Man City

League position: 2nd

Points: 79

Goal difference: +50

Games remaining: 4

Average position of opponent: 9.3

Reverse fixtures: 7 points

Wolves 2-1 Man City

Man City 5-1 Fulham

Man City 3-3 Tottenham

West Ham 1-3 Man City

Manchester City vs Wolves, May 4, 5.30pm

Tottenham vs Manchester City, May 14, 8pm

“On the back of the Brighton game on Thursday and Arsenal winning before them, it was a pressure game and Nottingham Forest are obviously fighting hard against relegation.

“With that result at the City Ground, I think the title is Manchester City’s now.”

“It’s all about getting results at this stage of the season. Pep, given the standards he sets, will certainly be concerned with the chances they gave up in the first half, but they had a lot more control in the second half.

“It’s the same old story with City, even when they are not at their best. They know how to win football matches, they have good options off the bench, and they have got into a really good habit of winning matches in recent years.

“I was worried at the start of the game, I wondered if they could slip up, but I think City will win all the rest of their matches now.”

Liverpool

League position: 3rd

Points: 75

Goal difference: +41

Games remaining: 3

Average position of opponent: 6.7

Reverse fixtures: 6 points

Tottenham 2-1 Liverpool

Liverpool 3-0 Aston Villa

Wolves 1-3 Liverpool

Liverpool vs Tottenham, May 5, 4.30pm

Aston Villa vs Liverpool, May 13, 8pm

“One win in five Premier League games leaves Liverpool needing luck and a large dose of improbability to see them lift that famous trophy come May 19.

“It all lies in checks and balances – will Arsenal and Man City drop enough points in their remaining games for Liverpool to overtake them? And could the Reds win their final three matches?

“At the moment, those scales are leaving Liverpool looking up rather than down and nothing is in their hands.

“The players have chosen the wrong time to go through a blip. It’s not the exciting, free flowing Liverpool we’re used to. The usually-reliable Mohamed Salah was relegated to the bench – and had a mysterious touchline argument with Jurgen Klopp, suggesting that all may not be well.

“At the other end, both of West Ham’s goals came from unmarked headers, following on from similar goals conceded against Everton in midweek too.

“Looking back, the Merseyside derby and now the draw at the London Stadium will likely be pinpointed as where Liverpool lost their way.

“But Jurgen Klopp remained unfazed by any talk of a title collapse – ‘I don’t think about it,’ he nonchalantly replied in his post-match press conference.

“And while that is true of Klopp, it will certainly be on the minds of three sets of fans with almost as many games to go. For now though, Liverpool must sit back, watch and wait, knowing that their title hopes are likely over for another season.”

Overall

Manchester City will claim an unprecedented fourth successive title if they win all of their four remaining games, but Guardiola’s side face a tricky away day at Spurs on May 14.

Additionally, City also face Wolves, Fulham and West Ham – all of whom typically sit deeper and possess counter-attacking threats that could breach their high line. Indeed, City’s first league defeat of the campaign came at Molineux in September.

On paper, Arsenal have the easiest run-in with the average position of upcoming opponents ranking around midtable at 10.3 – compared with Liverpool’s (6.3) and City’s (9.3) remaining schedule.

Predicted table

Manchester City are favourites to win the title with a 65.2 per cent chance, followed by Arsenal (34.8 per cent) and Liverpool (0.1 per cent) – according to Opta’s supercomputer.

Source: Norvanreports