Will vote buying work in Ejisu by-election?

According to the Ejisu by-election poll, 33% of voters say if offered an inducement to vote for a particular candidate in the upcoming by-election, will accept it and vote for that candidate. But 32% will accept the inducement and vote against the candidate. However, 21% will reject the inducement and vote against the candidate and 13% will reject the inducement and vote for the candidate, perhaps, they believe the candidate is the best candidate and need not offer inducement to win their vote. From this data, it is likely that only 33% of voters can be swayed by inducement in Ejisu.

The poll also shows that for NPP voters majority, 42% will accept the inducement and vote for the candidate. However, for those who are NDC, it is only 14% who will accept the inducement and vote for the candidate. Among floating voters, only 17% say they will accept the inducement and vote for the candidate. For those NPP voters who will reject and still vote for the candidate, they represent 15%. It is 8% and 11% respectively for NDC and floating voters.

28% of NPP voters say they will accept and vote against the candidate, while 32% of NDC voters will do the same and 49% for floating voters. However, for those who will reject and vote against, among NPP voters, they represent 16%, 45% for NDC voters and 22% for floating voters.

Crucially, for those who will accept the inducement, the poll shows about 64% intend to vote for Kwabena Boateng of the NPP while 35% will vote for Kwabena Owusu Aduomi, IND. This shows a great vulnerability for the IND candidate if the ruling party floods the constituency with inducements. For those who will reject and still vote for the candidate, majority intend to vote for Kwabena Owusu-Aduomi, 52%, while 45% will vote for Kwabena Boateng, NPP. However, for those who will accept and vote against the candidate, nearly 61% will vote for Aduomi while 36% will vote for Kwabena Boateng. This suggests that, anyone offering inducement should be very mindful among this group, because it could be counter productive. Significantly, nearly 52% of voters who say if offered an inducement they will reject and vote against the candidate intend to vote for NPP’s candidate while 47% will vote for Aduomi, meaning, if they are offered inducement by the ruling party to vote for their candidate, it could backfire.

What is the import of this data? An inducement may play a positive role in next Tuesday’s by-election but by and large, the poll shows it could go against those offering it.

Food for thought.

Credit to Cyndy Abraham and Emmanuel Tetteh Analysts at Global InfoAnalytics