A new survey carried out by Outcomes International has revealed that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) Presidential Candidate, is leading in 11 out of 16 regions of the country, with barely two months to the general election.
His closest contender, John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is ahead in 5 regions.
The survey, conducted to identify the likely winner and key determinants of voting decisions, shows a nail-biting close contest between the two frontrunners, with Dr. Bawumia polling at 49.4%, while Mr. Mahama trailing closely at 45.1%.
Notably, a significant 5.2% of respondents remain undecided, leaving room for potential shifts in the election’s outcome, and 0.3% expressed support for other candidates.
Regional Breakdown
Dr. Bawumia has a stronghold in the Ashanti Region, Eastern Region, Central Region, Western Region, Northern Region, Upper East Region, Upper West Region, Bono Region, Bono East Region, Ahafo Region and North East Region.
Mr. Mahama, on the other hand, leads in Volta Region, Greater Accra Region, Western North Region, Oti Region and Savannah Region.
Analysts predict that the undecided voters will play a crucial role in determining the election’s outcome.
Sample Size
The Outcomes International’s survey, which provides valuable insights into the December 7 elections, employed a quantitative research design, targeting 17 million registered voters.
With a sample size of 65,500 voters and a remarkable 99.84% response rate, the survey’s findings appear to be highly representative.
The researchers said the study utilised probability proportional to size sampling with implicit stratification to minimise costs and ensure national representation.
On data collection, Outcomes International said a Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) technology was employed to gather data from August 15 to September 15, 2024, with regions and constituencies serving as primary stratification variables, ensuring diverse perspectives.
Parliamentary Elections
For the parliamentary elections, the study also revealed that the NPP has taken the lead and is poised to secure majority seats in parliament.
The survey’s findings indicate that 52% of respondents would vote for NPP candidates, while 36% would support NDC candidates.
The study again says 7% of the respondents remains – undecided/none, whilst 5% of the respondents indicate they will go for other parties.
The survey’s results suggest that the NPP’s message resonates with a majority of Ghanaian voters. However, the NDC still maintains a significant support base, and the 7% of undecided voters could potentially swing the election.
In the 2020 parliamentary elections, the NPP and NDC each held 137 seats, with one independent candidate.
This latest survey indicates a shift in public opinion, potentially altering the balance of power in parliament.
As the country prepares for the December 2024 general election, these survey results will likely influence campaign strategies for both parties, according to political analysts.
“The NPP will aim to maintain its momentum, while the NDC will seek to regain lost ground. Both parties are expected to focus on swing regions and undecided voters,” the researchers disclosed.
Some observers have said the election’s outcome will depend on various factors, including voter turnout, party machinery, and policy initiatives.
Ghanaians will head to the polls in December to choose their next president, marking a significant moment in the country’s democratic history.
This year’s election is significant, as incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo is term-limited and cannot seek re-election.
Source:dailyguidenetwork.com