The topography of Ghana’s politics gradually sedimenting, creating new contours, valleys and ridges.
As NPP is making deep inroads into NDC’s strongholds in the non-Akan regions, the NDC strategical needs to maximize their tactics in the NPP Akan dominated regions such as Eastern and Ashanti regions.
The NDC needs to focus much on capturing Eastern region among its strongholds as the Ashanti remains a difficult ice to break in the short-term.
The capture of Eastern region by the NDC holds the future of the party. With the right strategies and tactical thinking, NDC can easily turned Eastern region into its stronghold.
It is unfortunate how the NDC for the past decacdes keeps betting it hopes wrongly on the back of Central region which has affected the party’s fortunes in past elections in turns of voter numbers.
A comprehensive analysis shows that, since 2016, vote difference between the NPP and NDC have always exceeded 280,000 votes in the Eastern region. Thus, NPP always get 280,000 more than NDC in Eastern region.
Whereas, in Central region which is a swing region, the vote difference has always been less than 90,000 votes. NDC’s best performance in the region was 2016, where the umbrella party gain around 90,000 votes more than NPP.
Surprisingly, in 2020, NPP gain around 74,000 votes more than NDC. Clearly, Central region is not the winning region for NDC to bank all its hope there. IF ONLY NDC WANTS TO WIN POWER.
I, Adnan Adams Mohammed, boldly say this despite being a former Constituency Deputy Communication Officer and Central Regional Communication Team Member which pivoted me to be part of the National Communication Team, Central region is my home region which ideally I should be promoting for attention from the NDC, but visionary and realistic thinking for the NDC party should overide personal interest.
Now, let’s do this small permutation. In 2020 election the NPP had 281,000 votes more than NDC in the Eastern region. NPP won the national elections with a total vote difference of 517,000. Assuming NDC had Eastern region as its stronghold and instead got 220,000 votes more than NPP in the region. The total national vote difference in favor of NPP will have reduced to 300,000 votes. This could have sent the 2020 election to a run-off.
A run-off election in 2020 would have favored NDC, as it will proof to Ghanaians that, the NPP as incumbent party is highly disliked.
Also, we need to know the some constituencies in the Ashanti region that share boundaries with Eastern region, such as, the Asante Akyem constituencies can easily fall to the NDC as well or NDC increasing its votes in those constituencies. This will also improve the performance of NDC in Ashanti regions.
HOW CAN NDC TAKE CONTROL OF EASTERN REGION
As stated above in this writeup, NDC needs to employ and deploy tactically strategic and deliberate elections planning and decision taking in the Eastern region.
One of such decisions could be that, picking a running mate from the Eastern region. Not just anyone, but a politically charismatic and experienced man who has political control in the region. With this, a pretty much effort in the electioneering campaign in the Eastern will do magic for NDC.
To this, the best person that comes in mind is Julius Debrah. His distinguished persona is par excellence.
Julius Debrah has the political, lineage, business clout in the Eastern region. This can be factually verified from the recorded of votes turnout under his tenure as the Eastern regional chairman between the periods of 2006 to 2012, although he did not serve his full term.
In 2012 elections, NDC recorded it best performance in Eastern region pulling over 42% of the total votes.
2028 AND BEYOND ELECTIONS: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PERMUTATION
Strategically, all political parties planning to contest 2024 elections must prepare as well for 2028 elections. Especially, the NDC, which has a presidential candidate who has only one term to serve the country.
Any strategic and rightful thinking political party will start marketing a potential presidential candidate with 2024 elections while building and exposing the running mate (possible vice president) to presidential experience between 2024 and 2028.
As noted above, it is empirical for NDC to have 2028 in mind while planning and taking decisions for 2024 elections.
Assuming, the NDC leadership settle on Julius Debrah as the running mate, let see the competitive advantage such decision will give to NDC.
For 2028 elections there could be a number of potential pairs (flagbearer and his running mate) for the NDC. Among such pairs, Julius Debrah still remains the solid person to consider due to the home region advantage and political experience.
Names such as; current Speaker of Parliament Alban Bagbin, MP Haruna Iddrisu, MP Sammy Okudzeto, MP Ato Forson, Alex K. Mould, Prof Joshua Alabi, Rtd COP Kofi Boakye, MP Eric Opoku, Asiedu Nketia, Fiifi Kwetey, Alhaji Sinare, Sylvester Mensah, Elvis Ankrah, MP Oko Vanderpuye etc.
Julius Debrah remains the best pillar or choice as flagbearer and be paired with any of the above listed honorables looking at the regional balance and advantage.
Eastern/Upper West
Eastern/Volta
Eastern/Northern
Eastern/Greater Accra
Eastern/Central
Eastern/Bono-Ahafo
Eastern/Ashanti
These are the best options NDC can have for 2028 and beyond.
This will solidify NDC party and propel the party to control Ghana for such a long period of time.
WHY JULIUS DEBRAH IS THE FUTURE OF NDC AND GHANA
A critical look through in NDC, some names have come out who can equally qualify to be selected as running mate ruling out the former running mate. Julius Debrah has wide advantage over the other names.
Not being oblivious of how Ghana’s Elections 2024 undoubtedly is going to be a tough one to crossover. Every personality in the front line must add weight and substance to the prospect of the political parties to be participating, especially the NDC and NPP.
The flagbearers and their running mates must be solid politicians who are very charismatic politicians (strong force magnets) who can exert much influence in the voting decisions across the demographics of Ghana’s economy and social life.
The magnetic pair for NDC should be John Dramani Mahama and Julius Debrah as it is much expected by many NDC faithfuls and the Ghanaian business class.
Julius Debrah (JD), former Chief of Staff to the former President of Ghana, John Dramani Mahama, undeniably has been the secret behind the NDC’s flagbearer strength and success.
JD is mostly referred to as the most affable, affectionate, hardworking, strategic and tactical brain, non-discriminative high political personality, very charitable and supportive.
His clout and command of power in Ghana’s political landscape is enviable and undisputably incomparable.
A mention of his name, immediately makes all present think about ‘humility’. It doesn’t matter about your age, class or status, he is always ready to and help out.
JD, born on 24 April 1966 (age 57) is anative of Obomeng Kwahu from the Eastern Region.
Academically, a product of Mpraeso Secondary School, Achimota Secondary School and University of Ghana where he obtained Bachelor of Arts in Archaeology and Sociology.
A great and successful business player and unrelenting politician. A three times Parliamentary Candidate for the NDC in a no go area of the NPP, yet, he held the battle front for the NDC party during the crucial times of the party when then was first witnessing dreadful opposition from the treacherous Akufo-Addo, Atta-Kyea, and the likes.
Despite, not winning the seat, his hard work, resilience and loyalty to the NDC were noticed and was therefore called to serve the party further in the capacity of Regional minister of Eastern and Greater Accra.
He later served the local government ministry remarkably and later called to be the Chief Servant of the First Gentleman of the land as Chief of Staff.
His leadership restructured and positioned Ghana’s Tourism industry as a key contributor to the economy while the industry players were heavily supported to meet the world class standards when he CEO position of the Ghana Tourism Authority.
His magical calmness, noble servant, strategic and tactical leadership and humility established the most cordial and undying relationship between him and his boss, John Mahama, even throughout this periods of seven years in opposition.
His servantship to John Mahama is above extraordinary.
Such values is what NDC needs now to backup the footsteps and softings the hearts of the undecided middle class, youth, and classless voters to consider the NDC as the ultimate choice.
Source: Adnan Adams Mohammed