In the latest analysis from GCB Research Capital, the research firm projects a noteworthy decline in inflation rates, citing a favourable base-drift as a key factor in the forthcoming shift.
Despite an overall reduction in both headline and core inflation throughout the current year, with headline inflation resting at a notable 35.2%, GCB Research Capital emphasizes the necessity of maintaining a stringent monetary policy stance to solidify the ongoing disinflation process.
The report underscores a comprehensive descent in both food and non-food inflation, coupled with a waning of cost-side and demand-side pressures as the second half of 2023 progresses. This confluence of factors is expected to drive headline inflation below the 30% threshold, with projections placing it near 26% by end of the year.
Such a decline is poised to reinstate positive real returns on Treasury bills, potentially hastening the correction in nominal yields come 2024. GCB Research Capital, however, cautiously appends the forecast with the caveat “all things being equal,” acknowledging the vulnerability of these predictions to unforeseen external factors.
This analysis by GCB Capital Research paints an optimistic picture of Ghana’s inflation scenario, hinting at a potential easing of the tight monetary policy and positive implications for Treasury bill yields in the near future.
Source:norvanreports