Ghana’s oil reserves is left with about 2.5 billion barrels more to be produce if new oil discoveries are not found.
This represents about 86% of the total oil reserves. According to Fitch Solutions, only about 400 million barrels of oil has so far been produced from the Jubilee and TEN fields, since the country began oil production in the year 2011.
“So far, just 400mn bbl of oil (gross) has been produced from the Jubilee and TEN fields, out of the 2.9 billion barrels in place – representing 14% of potential production”, it said.
This signifies ample opportunity for Ghana’s upstream oil production.
However, ongoing technical issues at both fields provide some risk to the country’s oil production potential. Previous issues have meant output at the Jubilee and TEN fields is currently capped at 70% of maximum Floating, Production, Storage and Offload capacity.
Nevertheless, Tullow Oil’s recent focus on improving water injection efficiency and optimising wells is set to enhance the fields’ output over Fitch Solutions forecast period.
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This raises the prospect of increasing recoverable reserves at both the Jubilee and TEN fields.
There are currently 49 injection and production wells at Jubilee and TEN fields planned between 2021 and 2030, with each production well projected to have an initial production rate of 10 to15,000 barrels per day.
Despite the company’s ambitions, it is unlikely all wells will reach the desired initial production rate over the planned period given the decline rates at the field.
“Consequently, each additional well drilled could have a diminishing initial output, with the expected drop in reservoir pressure without significant reservoir support from water injection. Although, well costs have fallen to near $60 million per well, according to Tullow, the increased number of wells and higher operating costs expected from an expanded injection programme may limit the scope of future investment if oil prices deteriorate from the current levels near US$50 per barrel.”
Pecan Field development
At the moment, the nation is still awaiting a boost from the Pecan Field, which is expected to come on stream in 2025.
Fitch Solutions says the anticipated development of the 110,000 barrels per day Pecan field holds the key to the country’s oil future.
The field is an ultra-deepwater play in the DWT/CTP block offshore Ghana and is estimated to contain about 334 million barrels of oil equivalents.
Consequently, its successful development presents significant upside risk to Fitch Solutions longer-term outlook for Ghana’s crude oil production.